Pakistan: what is to be done

Prof. Barnett R. Rubin of NYU has a totally incisive piece on the current situation and prospects for Pakistan. He makes a few minor mistakes, but overall this is the best analysis I have read in a while.

Rubin covers in one place, among other things:

1. The motivations of Musharraf and the military.
2. The forgotten supreme court that Musharraf has hijacked and Bush has abandoned.
3. The ISI's systematic vote rigging, which Bhutto was about to expose when she was killed.
   

Here's the concluding paragraph of this long, highly recommended posting:

A genuine free election in Pakistan today could very well confront President Musharraf with a parliament that would not recognize him and that would openly challenge the power of the army. But the military no longer has the capacity or legitimacy to rule Pakistan. The time for a pacted transition is past. The choice before Pakistan is democracy or disintegration.

In this conclusion, he agrees with Ahmed Rashid's article in Yale Global, another recommended op-ed.

Also read the International Crisis Group's report published yesterday:

[...] the policy outcomes that need to happen over the next two months, and which should be strongly and consistently supported by the international community, and particularly those like the U.S. most capable of influencing them, are:

• Musharraf’s resignation, with Senate Chairman Mohammadmian Soomro taking over under the constitution as acting president and appointing neutral caretaker governments at the national and provincial levels with the consensus of the major political parties in all four federal units;
  
• postponement of the polls, accompanied with the announcement of an early new election date. The Election Commission announced on 2 January a postponement until 18 February. This is reasonable in and of itself but it said nothing about the other crucial changes discussed in this Briefing and which are needed if this step is to contribute to restoration of democracy in Pakistan;
  
• full restoration of the constitution, including an independent judiciary and constitutionally guaranteed fundamental freedoms of speech, assembly and association and safeguards against illegal arrest and detention;
  
• reconstitution of the Election Commission of Pakistan, with the consensus of all major political parties; and
  
• the transfer of power and legitimate authority to elected civilian hands.

Hear, hear. Also, while we're at it, we'd also like the U.S. constitution to be reinstated, including the entire Bill of Rights.